KATZ PROGRAMMING RESEARCH

INDEPENDENT FOX/UPN/WB AFFILIATE SUMMARY – November 1998

The following summaries are based on the overall average of the top 100 markets in the November ‘98 sweep. The rankings, which follow this write-up, are based on a program having a minimum of 5 occurrences in a daypart.

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INDEPENDENT/FOX/UPN/WB AFFILIATE DAYTIME

JUDGE JUDY rules with an iron gavel in daytime! With all the court shows posting gains versus year ago time period, JUDGE JUDY leads the pack by being #1 in HH's (4/13) and achieving an 86% (+6 shares) increase versus Nov '97 time period. Also tying for #1 in W25-54 (with JERRY) and placing 2nd in W18-49, JUDY garnered a pair of 15 shares, up 88-114% (+7 to +8 shares) in key women from year ago time period. In the 7 occurrences where she remained in the same time slot over the past year, JUDGE JUDY increased her own performance by 50% in HH's (from a 10 share to a 15 share), 42% in W18-49 (12 to 17), and 64% in W25-54 (11 to 18). JUDGE JOE BROWN tied for 5th in HH's (2/8) with a 60% gain and delivered a top 10 demo performance with 8 shares in W18-49 and W25-54, each up 33% versus year ago time period. THE PEOPLE'S COURT was 8th in HH's (2/7), slightly ahead of #12 JUDGE MILLS LANE (2/6). Posting 7 shares in key women, both court shows were up 40% over Nov '97 time period.

Ranking 3rd overall in HH's (4/11), JERRY SPRINGER continues to dominate in the talk category, placing #1 in key women, up from a 14 share to a 19 share in W18-49 and from a 15 to an 11 in W25-54. However, versus his own year ago performance (12 occurrences), JERRY shows signs of slowing down, posting a loss in HH's and a 2-4 share loss in key women. This may seem like more of a slight decline for other shows, but it is significant for a powerhouse performer such as JERRY, who has recently only experienced increases. Of the other veteran talkers, REGIS & KATHIE LEE saw declines of 4-5 shares across the board, though ranking 2nd in HH's (3/12). SALLY JESSY (3/10), MAURY (2/7), and MONTEL WILLIAMS (2/7) grabbed top 10 HH and key demo slots. They also all experienced time period growth. JENNY JONES (2/6) and RICKI LAKE (2/6) mirrored each other's share delivery, tying for #12 in HH's, #5 in W18-49, and #8 in W25-54.

As for the new talkers, none lit any fires in their first major sweep. THE ROSEANNE SHOW (2/7) did crack the top 10 in HH's (#8T), but delivered only single digit 7 shares in key women, posting over 50% (-7 to -9 shares) declines. DONNY & MARIE (1/4) and HOWIE MANDEL (1/3) had lower overall finishes, neither making the top 20 and both decreasing their respective year ago time periods by 1-2 share points. Of other freshman programs, the nasally NANNY managed 12th in HH's (2/6), with 2-3 share point increases in key women versus year ago time period. FORGIVE OR FORGET, NEWSRADIO, and MATCH GAME were basically flat versus year ago, tying in HH's with a 1/4 and delivering 3-5 shares in key women. SISTER, SISTER was at the bottom of the bunch in HH's, but grew over year ago time period from a 1 share in W18-49 and W25-54 to a 4 share and a 3 share, respectively. On the romance front, CHANGE OF HEART (1/3) and LOVE CONNECTION (1/3) played it pretty close to the fence, performing relatively on par with their respective year ago time periods. LOVE CONNECTION posted the biggest drop-off, down 2 shares in W25-54 from Nov '97 time period.

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INDEPENDENT/FOX/UPN/WB AFFILIATE EARLY FRINGE

Talking his way to the top, JERRY SPRINGER (5/11) scores 1st place in HH’s and W18-49 (19 share) and 2nd in W25-54 (15 share), pumping up the time period share delivery by 73% (+8 shares) in W18-49 and 67% (+6 shares) in W25-54. ROSIE O’DONNELL is the 1st choice for W25-54, but 2nd in W18-49. Scoring a 16 share in key women, ROSIE decreased year ago time period by 11% (-2 shares). Versus her own Nov '97 performance, the "queen of nice" also experienced a 19% (-4 shares) loss in W18-49 and a 15% (-3 shares) loss in W25-54. MONTEL WILLIAMS (3/8) tied for 6th in HH's and was a top 10 performer in key women. The long-running RICKI LAKE experienced 3 share point increases in key women to a 13 in W18-49 and a 10 in W25-54 versus Nov '97 time period. The story basically held true against RICKI's own year ago performance as she went up a share point in HH's and key women.

JUDGE JUDY, ranking 3rd in HH's (5/10) and 4th in W25-54 (11 share), boosted year ago time period by 57% (+4 shares) in each. JUDGE JOE BROWN (4/8) and PEOPLE'S COURT (3/8) cracked the top ten in HH's, experiencing time period gains of 167% (+5 shares) and 60% (+3 shares), respectively. JOE BROWN and Ed Koch also tied for 15th in W18-49, each posting an 8 share and achieving a 167% (+5 shares) time period increase. Koch matched that delivery in W25-54, while JOE delivered a 9 share, up from the 2 share the time period delivered in Nov '97. While JUDGE MILLS LANE (2/5), in a more limited sample, doesn't perform at the same level as the other court shows in this daypart, MILLS does post gains of over 100% (+3 to +4 shares) in key women.

On the sitcom front, the top HH performers include THE SIMPSONS (5/9), FRASIER (4/9), FRIENDS (5/8), and HOME IMPROVEMENT (4/8). All but FRASIER place in the top 10 in key women, teens, and kids. A competitive player across these key early fringe demographics, THE SIMPSONS remains flat in women, but is #1 in kids and teens (up 8 shares versus Nov '97 time period). The new off-net FRIENDS demonstrated higher shares across the board (as it should), placing 3rd and 4th, respectively, in W18-49 (15 share) and W25-54 (11 share). Versus year ago time period, FRIENDS successfully posted increases of 3-4 shares across key women and teens.

Of the other freshman sitcoms, THE NANNY (3/4) is basically flat year-to-year in HH's and key women. NEWSRADIO (1/2) falls to the bottom of the list, showing no growth in any of the key demos. More geared to the teen and kid audience, where it is among the top 10, SISTER, SISTER (3/5) also scores the highest of the three (#19) in HH's.

THE ROSEANNE SHOW (2/6) and DONNY & MARIE (2/5) demonstrated similar showings in this daypart as they did in daytime by exhibiting no time period increases from Nov '97. Though delivering low single digit shares in key women, FORGIVE OR FORGET (2/5) is at least experiencing time period gains -- up 67% (+2 shares) in HH's and W25-54 and up 100% (from a 3 share to a 6) in W18-49.

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INDEPENDENT/FOX/UPN/WB AFFILIATE ACCESS

With the top 5 slots all occupied by comedies, sitcoms are the viewers' choice in access. While all of the returning off-nets continue to downtrend, they also continue to deliver the most competitive shares. SEINFELD leads the pack yet again in HH’s (7/11) and all key adult demo shares (save W18-49, which is now in the FRIENDS court), although now, in its 4th season, is beginning to show its age, down 3-4 shares across the board from Nov '97 time period. HOME IMPROVEMENT, though tying for 2nd in HH's (5/9), teens, and kids, also is passing its prime, declining across the board, but still ranking in the top 5 in the key demos. The following charts outline the audience erosion of these seasoned powerhouses in all markets that have aired SEINFELD and HOME IMPROVEMENT in the same time period over the last four Novembers.

Seinfeld - Nov ‘98 - Nov ‘95 Own Performance - 25 occurrences

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

Teen Shr

Kid Shr

Nov ‘98

16

14

20

18

17

9

% Difference

-24%

-26%

-20%

-18%

-15%

-18%

Nov ’97

21

19

25

22

20

11

% Difference

-5%

-5%

-

-4%

-13%

-21%

Nov ‘96

22

20

25

23

23

14

% Difference

+10%

+11%

+14%

+21%

+10%

-7%

Nov ‘95

20

18

22

19

21

15

Home Improvement - Nov ‘98 - Nov ‘95 Own Performance - 9 occurrences

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

Teen Shr

Kid Shr

Nov ‘98

15

13

17

15

24

21

% Difference

-29%

-28%

-26%

-21%

-33%

-9%

Nov ’97

21

18

23

19

36

23

% Difference

-19%

-18%

-21%

-24%

-22%

-36%

Nov ‘96

26

22

29

25

46

36

% Difference

-

-

+7%

+4%

+28%

-

Nov ‘95

26

22

27

24

36

36

Ya gotta have FRIENDS (6/9) in access. Ranking #2 in HH's and M25-54, and #3 in M18-49, the FRIENDS pull in a 1st place finish in key women, increasing year ago time period by 30% (+3 shares) with a 13 share in W25-54. Homer and the rest of the SIMPSONS (6/8) tie with FRASIER (5/8) in HH shares. The Seattle shrink exhibited share losses across the board (though not as significant as SEINFELD or HOME IMPROVEMENT), however it ranked 3rd in key women and 5th in key men. The Springfield SIMPSONS contingent posted the only gains of the top 5 sitcom vets, 1-2 share point increases in M18-49 and kids. Other favorable sitcoms rounding out the rest of the HH top 10 include MARTIN, LIVING SINGLE, MAD ABOUT YOU, and the FRESH PRINCE.

The two court shows making an appearance in access continue the genre's solid performance this sweep. JUDGE JUDY (5/8) and JUDGE JOE BROWN (4/8) increased HH time period shares by 100% (+4 shares) and 167% (+5 shares), respectively. Both delivered 7 shares in key men, with JOE jumping 133% (+4 shares) and JUDY edging up 1-2 shares. JUDY and JOE were the ladies' choice as well, posting 9 shares in key women (except for JOE's 8 in W25-54).

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INDEPENDENT/FOX/UPN/WB LATE FRINGE

The two Jerry’s were again tops in HH's in late fringe, though SEINFELD (8/12) gained "nothing" in key adult demos while SPRINGER (4/11) gained in everything. The king of comedy was #1 in men despite a 3 share point drop-off versus year ago time period, while the king of talk was 2nd in key adults, up 6-7 shares in key women and 4 shares in key men. The story basically held true for both programs versus their own year ago performances, yet SPRINGER's limited 3 market sample experienced slight gains in women and slight losses in men.

The viewers' voices have been heard, with court shows making a clean sweep in all 4 dayparts, gaining a bigger audience all the way. Without sleaze on his side (and in a limited 6 occurrence sample), JUDGE JOE BROWN tied with JERRY SPRINGER in HH share delivery (3/11) and edged his way into a 1st place finish in key women. JOE's 19 share in W18-49 was a 36% (+5 shares) jump versus Nov '97 time period and the 20 share in W25-54 was a 43% (+6 shares) leap. It didn't stop there. The new "man in black" garnered more male viewers, exhibiting a 5 share point climb (+63%) in M18-49 to a 13 share and a 2 share point rise in M25-54 versus Nov '97 time period. The honorable JUDGE JUDY (5/9) held the 4th place HH slot, while remaining steady in the adult demos, posting slight gains in key women and slight losses in key men. FRIENDS, the best of the new off-net crop, saw its largest growth pattern in key women, with a 6 share point increase to a 14 share in W18-49 and a 4 point share increase in W25-54 to an 11 share.

CHANGE OF HEART and LOVE CONNECTION, tying for 15th in HH's (2/6), were solid newcomers to late fringe. CHANGE OF HEART increased the W18-49 demo by 2 shares, bringing it to a 10, while remaining flat in the other adult demos (losing a share point in M25-54). Showing no major gains, LOVE CONNECTION lost no more than a share point when compared to Nov '97 time period. The following charts demonstrate how each relationship show performs as a lead-in to the other:

Love Connection as lead-in - 31 occurrences

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

Love Connection

8

6

5

5

Change of Heart

10

8

7

6

% Difference

+25%

+33%

+40%

+20%

Change of Heart as lead-in - 24 occurrences

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

Change of Heart

9

6

6

5

Love Connection

9

6

6

5

% Difference

-

-

-

-

Other competitive options for women in the daypart include: RICKI LAKE, JENNY JONES, LIVING SINGLE, MURPHY BROWN, MARTIN, ROSEANNE, and THE NANNY. Male favorites include: COPS, THE SIMPSONS, FRASIER, MARRIED WITH CHILDREN, STAR TREK: THE NEXT GENERATION, CHEERS, and COACH.

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