KATZ PROGRAMMING RESEARCH

AFFILIATE SUMMARY - November 1998

The following summaries are based on the overall average of the top 100 markets in the November ‘98 sweep. The rankings, which follow this write-up, are based on a program having a minimum of 5 occurrences in a daypart.


NEWSLETTER TABLE OF CONTENTS | DAYTIME | EARLY FRINGE | ACCESS | LATE FRINGE


AFFILIATE/DAYTIME

The daytime battle lines have been drawn. Running a very close HH race, JERRY SPRINGER (6/23) and JUDGE JUDY (5/23) call the #1 position. In W18-49, the one-two punch is between JERRY (33 share) and ROSIE O’DONNELL (29 share) with JUDY (21 share) pulling up in 3rd. In the older W25-54, ROSIE stakes out 1st place with a 31 share. While JERRY continues to achieve substantial time period gains over November ’97 time period, ROSIE continues to decline, posting the largest drop-offs of any program on the daytime ranking. SPRINGER has slowed down the pace of growth this November, up only 14-16% (+4 shares) in key women over year ago time period. Versus his own year ago performance, SPRINGER remains relatively status quo. Keeping in mind that ROSIE had the farthest to fall considering her record high shares in Nov ‘97, this "nice" talker is down 29% (-12 shares) in W18-49 and down 26% (-11 shares) in W25-54. REGIS & KATHIE LEE (4/19) continue to show the signs of aging (down 5 shares in key women), but still deliver a top 5 performance in HH’s and key women. The remaining top 10 talkers -- SALLY (3/15), MAURY (3/14), JENNY (3/12) and MONTEL (3/12) -- turned in respectable performances. All of these talk shows, with the exception of MAURY, were off Nov ’97 time period and their own year ago performances in key women. MAURY, in its revamped format, was flat versus year ago time period and up 2-3 shares over its own Nov ’97 performance.

Below is a chart looking at these returning talk shows and their own Nov ’97 versus Nov ’98 performances. (The time period performance chart can be found at the end of this section.)

RETURNING TALK/OWN PERFORMANCE

W18-49 Shr

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

W25-54 Shr

N ‘98

N ‘97

%Chg

N ‘98

N ‘97

%Chg

JERRY (10)

33

34

-3%

29

29

-

ROSIE (7)

29

41

-29%

31

42

-26%

SALLY (26)

20

25

-20%

18

23

-22%

MAURY (24)

20

17

+18%

19

17

+12%

JENNY (21)

19

23

-17%

15

20

-25%

REGIS (83)

17

22

-23%

19

25

-24%

MONTEL (12)

17

20

-15%

17

19

-11%

MARTHA (38)

12

14

-14%

14

17

-18%

RICKI LAKE did not make the minimum 3 occurrence cut for airing in the same time period over the past year.

Of the 3 new talk shows to join the daypart, DONNY & MARIE (2/9) actually turned in a slightly "better" performance. Ranking ahead of HOWIE MANDEL (2/8) and ROSEANNE (2/8), the brother- sister duet experienced the lesser time period declines in HH’s (-3 shares) and key women (-2 to -3 shares). ROSEANNE (down 7 shares) and HOWIE (down 5-6 shares) are collectively down 36-41% in key women from year ago time period.

The courtroom is proving to be the place "to be." Not only is JUDGE JUDY’s HH (#1T) time period delivery up 92% (+11 shares) over Nov ’97, its key women (#3) experience a 10 share point increase. THE PEOPLE’S COURT (4/14) ties for the 6th HH position and ranks 9th in key women (13 share), remaining flat versus Nov ’97 time period. In 11 of its 21 daytime markets, THE PEOPLE’S COURT airs in the same time slot as year ago, boosting its own performance by 1-2 shares in key women. With an equal number of clearances, freshman TV judges JOE BROWN (3/12) and MILLS LANE (3/10) are both on a time period upswing. Delivering low teen double digit shares in key women and ranking in the top 15, JOE BROWN turns in a slightly stronger performance, up 22-25% (+2 shares) in key women from year ago time period. MILLS LANE, posting single digit key female shares, falls among the top 20 and is up 1-2 shares versus Nov ’97 time period.

On the game front, HOLLYWOOD SQUARES (3/12, #8T) is the one to beat. Achieving a pair of 12 shares in key women, SQUARES exhibits a 20% (+2 shares) rise in W18-49 (#10), but remains flat in W25-54 (#11). MATCH GAME (2/9, #14T) was able to conjure up a 10 and 11 share in W18-49 and W25-54, respectively, up a share point versus Nov ’97 time period.

Looking to the network daytime scene, THE PRICE IS RIGHT averages a 5/25 HH rating and share and, if compared to the syndicated product, would place #1 on HH ranking, #6T in W18-49 and #5T in W25-54. The VIEW (3/11) would tie for 12th with MARTHA. Now in its second season on ABC, THE VIEW continues to look good. Posting a pair of 15 shares in W18-49 (#8T) and W25-54 (#7T), THE VIEW is experiencing slight gains in both time period and its own year ago performance (up 1-2 shares). LEEZA (2/10), garnering a pair of 13 shares in key women, would tie with MILLS LANE as the 13th ranked HH show.

See the AFFILIATE DAYTIME/Top 100 Rankings


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AFFILIATE/EARLY FRINGE

The afternoon HH race continues to remain close between opponents OPRAH WINFREY (7/21) and JERRY SPRINGER (8/20). While SPRINGER is #1 (by a very slight 1 share point margin) in W18-49, OPRAH retains the crown in W25-54 (by a wider 4 share point margin). JERRY also picks up whatever key men are available in the daypart. Once again, JERRY has not failed to disappoint, boosting year ago time period by 21% (+5 shares) in W18-49 and by 13% (+3 shares) in W25-54. However, in the 3 markets where SPRINGER has aired in the same time period over the past year, 4-5 share point declines can be found in key women. OPRAH, on the other hand, has remained relatively stable, down by only a share point versus her own Nov ’97 levels. The surprise performer this sweep turned out to be MAURY (4/15) who ranks 6th in HH’s, 3rd in W18-49 (20 share) and ties for 3rd with ROSIE in W25-54 (19 share). Aside from JERRY, MAURY is one of two returning talkers (the other is RICKI) who has achieved time period and year ago performance growth, up 4-5 shares in key women. While dropping to #11 in HH’s, ROSIE (4/13) continues to place competitively among the top 5 in key women, even with 4-6 share point declines from Nov ’97 time period and her own year ago performance. SALLY (5/14) and MONTEL (5/14), while also off their mark, still post respectable high teen shares and tie for 5th in key women. All three of the freshman talkers -- DONNY & MARIE (2/8), HOWIE MANDEL (2/6) and THE ROSEANNE SHOW (2/6) -- failed to break into the top rung of syndicated offerings, all posting shares below year ago levels. DONNY & MARIE was the only one to break the double digit share barrier in key women.

Below is a chart outlining the returning talk shows’ performance where they have remained in the same time period over the past year. (The time period performance chart can be found at the end of this section.)

RETURNING TALK/OWN PRFORMANCE

W18-49 Shr

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

W25-54 Shr

N ‘98

N ‘97

%Chg

N ‘98

N ‘97

%Chg

JERRY (3)

35

39

-10%

32

39

-18%

OPRAH (96)

28

29

-3%

29

30

-3%

MAURY (9)

20

15

+33%

20

16

+25%

ROSIE (69)

20

26

-23%

20

25

-20%

MONTEL (45)

19

21

-10%

18

21

-14%

RICKI (8)

18

15

+20%

15

13

+15%

SALLY (14)

18

22

-18%

18

20

-10%

JENNY (8)

12

19

-37%

11

16

-31%

In comparing other veteran talkers (with at least 3 occurrences) in head-to-head competition with OPRAH (on traditional affiliated stations only), JERRY SPRINGER (5 occurrences) is at the top of the heap again this survey. While SPRINGER garners a 25 share in W18-49 and a 22 share in W25-54, OPRAH achieves a 23 and a 26 share, respectively. ROSIE, MONTEL, RICKI, SALLY, JENNY, MAURY and DONNY & MARIE also make the cut. Of these talkers, ROSIE comes closest to meeting OPRAH's shares in both W18-49 and W25-54 followed by MONTEL, RICKI and then SALLY. Below is a tally of OPRAH’s direct competition with these talk shows.

 

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

OPRAH

23

26

Jerry (5 occurrences)

25

22

-8%

+18%

OPRAH

27

29

Rosie (42 occ)

18

18

+50%

+61%

OPRAH

26

28

Montel (28 occ)

15

14

+73%

+100%

OPRAH

29

30

Sally (12 occ)

17

15

+71%

+100%

OPRAH

28

33

Jenny (3 occ)

15

12

+87%

+175%

OPRAH

30

31

Maury (6 occ)

14

14

+114%

+121%

OPRAH

23

24

Ricki (3 occ)

12

10

+92%

+140%

OPRAH

41

42

Donny & Marie (4 occ)

5

6

+720%

+600%

 

While not necessarily achieving the highest demo shares in the daypart, JUDGE JUDY is making an impressive showing -- ranking 5th in HH’s (6/17), 7th in key women and 4th in key men. Posting a 15 share in W18-49 and a 16 share in W25-54, JUDY has boasted 15% (+2 shares) and 23% (+3 shares) gains, respectively, versus Nov ’97 time period. JUDY’s most substantial increase comes from her HH performance (+5 shares) which is driven by an older skewing audience. Versus her own year ago performance, JUDY remains flat in key women. While turning in a less competitive performance and not posting the same type of significant gains, THE PEOPLE’S COURT (4/11, #14T) is up slightly in HH’s (+2 shares) and W25-54 (+2 shares). Of the two new JUDGES in town -- MILLS LANE (3/10) is the only one to make the traditional affiliate occurrence cut this survey. Delivering only single digit key female shares, MILLS has upped the time period delivery by 1-2 share points versus year ago.

HOLLYWOOD SQUARES (4/13, #11T) made a very competitive showing in early fringe. With 28 occurrences in the daypart, SQUARES posted a pair of 13 shares in key women, up 18% (+2 shares) in W18-49 (#10) and up 8% (+1 share) in W25-54 (#11) versus Nov ’97 time period.

See the AFFILIATE EARLY FRINGE/Top 100 Rankings


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AFFILIATE/ACCESS

WHEEL (13/24) and JEOPARDY (12/21) remain the top two to beat in access in HH’s and W25-54 (FRIENDS tied for #2), deferring to FRIENDS and WHEEL in W18-49, and SEINFELD and HOME IMPROVEMENT in key men. While WHEEL is only posting 1-2 key adult share point declines versus Nov ’97 time period and its own year ago performance, JEOPARDY is down 2-3 shares in key women and a share point in key men. Next in line in HH’s is INSIDE EDITION (7/13, #3) and E.T. (7/12, #4T).

HOLLYWOOD SQUARES (6/11, #7T) was one of two new entries this season to make it to the access ranking. As the only new game show in the recent past to make it to the bonus round, SQUARES proves to be a competitive performer. Posting a pair of 12 shares in key women, SQUARES ranks 6th and boosts year ago time period by 50% (+4 shares) in W18-49 and 33% (+3 shares) in W25-54. Also ranking among the top 10 in key men, this celebrity game posts a 29% gain over Nov ’97 time period (from a 7 to a 9 share). In eight of its forty situations, HOLLYWOOD SQUARES replaced HARD COPY and grew the time period over 50% (+3 to +4 shares) in key women and over 29% (+2 shares) in key men. In the markets where SQUARES is in direct competition with its sister games WHEEL and JEOPARDY, SQUARES is slaughtered in HH’s, but proves to be a competitive performer in key adults. SQUARES’ adult share delivery is closer to that of WHEEL’s, beating out the "more experienced" game by 20% (+2 shares) in W18-49 and by a share point in W25-54 and M18-49. SQUARES falls short of JEOPARDY levels, underperforming it by 3-4 shares in W24-54 and key men.

The short list of access programming is dominated by first-run magazine product, most of which remains relatively stable versus their own year ago performance and Nov ’97 time period. HARD COPY exhibits the largest fall-off from year ago in key women, down 3 shares versus time period and its own performance.

Below is a chart illustrating the returning magazine’s own Nov ’97 to Nov ’98 performance in markets that have aired the program in the same time period over the past year. (The time period performance chart can be found at the end of this section.)

RETURNING MAGAZINE/OWN PERFORMANCE

W25-54

W25-54

M25-54

M25-54

N ‘98

N ‘97

%Chg

N ‘98

N ‘97

%Chg

E.T. (63)

14

15

-7%

10

11

-9%

INSIDE (17)

13

13

-

10

9

+11%

EXTRA (17)

10

11

-9%

8

8

-

HARD CO (7)

10

13

-23%

9

9

-

REAL TV (8)

10

11

-9

10

12

-17%

ACCESS (9)

9

9

-

7

6

+17%

In the comedy arena, the freshman FRIENDS (6/11, #7T) is the first choice sitcom among key women while SEINFELD continues to hold that honor with key men. FRIENDS delivers solid mid teen shares with key women and low teen shares with key men, but remains flat versus year ago time period. The three returning sitcoms -- FRASIER, HOME IMPROVEMENT and SEINFELD -- while still turning in competitive shares are posting declines versus their own Nov ’97 performances. Let’s look at the charts below.

Frasier - Nov ‘98 vs Nov ‘97 Own Performance* - 15 occurrences

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

Nov ‘98

11

11

11

11

Nov ’97

14

14

13

13

% Difference

-21%

-21%

-15%

-15%

Home Improvement - Nov ‘98 vs Nov ‘97 Own Performance* - 21 occurrences

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

Nov ‘98

13

13

15

15

Nov ’97

18

18

18

18

% Difference

-28%

-28%

-17%

-17%

Seinfeld - Nov ‘98 vs Nov ‘97 Own Performance* - 23 occurrences

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

Nov ‘98

14

13

17

17

Nov ‘97

20

19

23

22

% Difference

-30%

-32%

-26%

-23%

*Markets that have aired the program in the same time period over the past year.

See the AFFILIATE ACCESS/Top 100 Rankings


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AFFILIATE/LATE FRINGE

As we do with every sweep, in order to put traditional affiliate late fringe into perspective, we must remember that the majority of syndicated programming is broadcast post network late night, lending to low ratings and high shares. So before we look at the top ranking late night performers in syndication, let’s briefly review the network landscape. The "LENO-LETTERMAN" competition is no longer a race to hold our breath for. LENO continues to win the time period hands down, outperforming LETTERMAN in HH’s and across all key adult shares.

Head-to-Head Competition

HH RTG

HH SHR

W18-49 Shr

W25-54 Shr

M18-49 Shr

M25-54 Shr

LENO

5

18

17

18

16

17

LETTERMAN

3

12

12

13

13

13

Leno Advantage

+67%

+50%

+42%

+38%

+23%

+31%

While THE TONIGHT SHOW is clearly on top and continues to be relatively stable in HH and key adult shares from Nov ‘97, LETTERMAN is down 13-14% (-2 share points) across the board. Both ABC’s NIGHTLINE and POLITICALLY INCORRECT deliver single digit key adult shares, remaining relatively status quo from year ago.

JERRY SPRINGER, in a limited 6 market sample, is the #1 late night player in HH’s and key adult shares, up considerably from year ago time period. SEINFELD moves down to #4 and #5 in W18-49 and W25-54, respectively, and is #3 in key men. FRIENDS ties for #2 in W18-49, is #3 in W25-54 and ties for 5th in key men. Other top 10 performers earning competitive shares across key adults include MAURY, CHEERS, JENNY JONES, FRASIER and GRACE UNDER FIRE. Key players among just the female sector include JUDGE MILLS LANE, COACH and newcomer CHANGE OF HEART. Just for the men -- MASH, MARRIED WITH … CHILDREN and NEWSRADIO make the top 10 grade.

See the AFFILIATE LATE FRINGE/Top 100 Rankings


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